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9:1 36Kr | Doubao's Monthly Active Users Drop by 6.1 Million After Launching Subscription; Anthropic Calls for Global Slowdown in AI Development, Warns of 'Self-Improvement' Risks; Luo Yonghao Steps Down as Executive Director of Smartisan Software Company 9点1氪|豆包推出付费后月活减少610万;Anthropic呼吁全球放缓AI开发,警告AI“自我改进”风险;罗永浩卸任锤子软件公司执行董事

Doubao’s loss of 6.1 million monthly active users served as a costly, open lesson for the entire Chinese AI industry. This wake-up call was loud enough to jolt every team eager to rush AI products into a paid model: In China, users’ faith in "free" remains unshakable. The timeline for commercialization is not dictated by the pace of technological iteration but by the speed of shifting user mindsets. Li Bangzhu’s remark that "China’s free AI era is far from over" was too polite—it should have bee 豆包用610万月活流失的代价,给整个中国AI赛道上了一堂价值连城的付费公开课。这记耳光响亮到足以让所有急着把AI产品丢进付费池的团队惊醒:在中国,用户对“免费”的信仰坚如磐石,商业化的时间表,不是由技术的迭代速度,而是由用户心智的转变速度决定的。李邦竹那句“中国免费AI时代远未结束”说得太客气了,应该更直白些——免费不是阶段,是生态。字节跳动仗着流量帝国的优势,在AI商业化上依然暴露了其惯用的“闪电战”思维在面对全新用户关系时的水土不服。用户今天能为你免费模型的惊艳表现欢呼,明天就能为付费墙的竖起而毫不犹豫地转身离去。这流失的610万不是数据,是用脚投票的、愤怒而清醒的消费者。

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Doubao’s loss of 6.1 million monthly active users served as a costly, open lesson for the entire Chinese AI industry. This wake-up call was loud enough to jolt every team eager to rush AI products into a paid model: In China, users’ faith in "free" remains unshakable. The timeline for commercialization is not dictated by the pace of technological iteration but by the speed of shifting user mindsets. Li Bangzhu’s remark that "China’s free AI era is far from over" was too polite—it should have been more direct: Free is not a phase; it is an ecosystem. Relying on its traffic empire, ByteDance still revealed in its AI commercialization push the inadequacy of its familiar "blitzscaling" mindset when confronting entirely new user relationships. Users today may cheer for the impressive performance of your free model, but tomorrow they will turn away without hesitation the moment a paywall goes up. Those 6.1 million lost users are not mere data—they are angry, clear-eyed consumers voting with their feet.

In stark and ironic contrast to Doubao’s "premature push," there is Anthropic’s blog post calling for a global slowdown in AI development. On the surface, it brims with lofty concern for humanity’s fate. But peel back the warm, public-relations-friendly rhetoric, and the core reveals a shrewd strategic positioning: run the fastest yourself, then turn around and shout to the chasers, "Danger—slow down!" This move carries a whiff of "a thief crying 'stop thief.'" While Anthropic flaunts its muscle by disclosing internal data on its models’ soaring capabilities, it warns of the risks of "self-improvement." What it may really be saying is: "Friends, the road ahead is too dangerous—why not let me use my lead to occupy it first?" In the business world, noble calls are often the most elegant competitive tactics. The so-called global coordination resembles more of a soft barrier designed to buy time for the leader and set hurdles for the followers. We must, of course, be mindful of risks, but we should also see clearly the deep-seated anxiety behind these calls—the fear of being easily overtaken by latecomers.

Turning back to the domestic scene, a Tencent executive’s claim that "most of our code this year is generated by AI" reads less as a technical fact than as a compelling efficiency narrative. In a precise technical context, the term "most" requires very specific definition: Does it mean AI assists in completing most lines of code? Or does it dominate the development of most functional modules? The image of engineers "spending more time on architecture design while delegating coding to AI" feels more like an idealized preview of future workflows than today’s widespread reality. However, the true value of this statement lies in what it signals: Major tech companies have officially upgraded their positioning of AI from a "novel tool" to "core productivity infrastructure." At the same time, the explosive growth in Tencent Cloud’s daily token consumption—surpassing 5 trillion—offers a more solid, unembellished signal. It indicates that in the B2B sector, large model applications have moved beyond the proof-of-concept stage and entered a practical phase of large-scale data processing and task execution. The growth logic here diverges subtly but crucially from Doubao’s setbacks in the B2C market: Enterprise clients pay for deterministic efficiency gains, their willingness and ability far exceeding that of individual users paying for uncertain experiential upgrades.

Thus, the current AI landscape is fragmented. On one side, the consumer market is locked in a fierce struggle within the mire of free models, where paywalls act as revealing mirrors exposing the illusion of user loyalty. On the other side, the enterprise services market surges ahead in real-world scenarios, with token consumption emerging as the new yardstick for growth. Meanwhile, across the ocean, the frontrunner constructs its moat through a narrative of "risk." This game is no longer a mere technological sprint. Doubao’s tuition tells us that respecting the stages of market education matters more than chasing the speed of technological monetization. Anthropic’s call reminds us that in competition, the ability to define issues and set rules is sometimes just as critical as technological leadership itself. As for those grand, beautiful tales of "AI-generated code," we might do better to listen to the steady, tangible pulse of tokens on cloud platforms—where the truest and most powerful undercurrents of AI commercialization in this stage truly churn.

豆包用610万月活流失的代价,给整个中国AI赛道上了一堂价值连城的付费公开课。这记耳光响亮到足以让所有急着把AI产品丢进付费池的团队惊醒:在中国,用户对“免费”的信仰坚如磐石,商业化的时间表,不是由技术的迭代速度,而是由用户心智的转变速度决定的。李邦竹那句“中国免费AI时代远未结束”说得太客气了,应该更直白些——免费不是阶段,是生态。字节跳动仗着流量帝国的优势,在AI商业化上依然暴露了其惯用的“闪电战”思维在面对全新用户关系时的水土不服。用户今天能为你免费模型的惊艳表现欢呼,明天就能为付费墙的竖起而毫不犹豫地转身离去。这流失的610万不是数据,是用脚投票的、愤怒而清醒的消费者。

与豆包的“冒进”形成滑稽对照的,是Anthropic那篇呼吁全球放缓AI研发的博客文章。表面上,这充满了为人类命运担忧的崇高责任感,但剥开那层温情脉脉的公关辞令,内核是一种精明的战略卡位。自己跑得最快,然后回头对追赶者大喊“危险,慢一点”,这操作多少有些“贼喊捉贼”的味道。当Anthropic一边披露自家模型能力飙升的内部数据以炫耀肌肉,一边警告“自我改进”风险时,它真正想说的或许是:“朋友们,前方太危险了,不如让我先用领先优势把路占满。” 商业世界里,高尚的呼吁往往是最优雅的竞争手段。所谓的全球协调,更像是一种为领先者争取时间、为追赶者设置门槛的柔性壁垒。我们当然要关注风险,但更要看清这些呼吁背后,那份不愿被后来者轻易超越的深层焦虑。

视线转回国内,腾讯高管宣称“今年大部分代码都由AI生成”,这与其说是一个技术事实,不如说是一个极具传播效果的效率叙事。在真实的技术语境里,“大部分”这个词需要非常精确的定义:是辅助补全了大部分代码行?还是主导完成了大部分功能模块?工程师们“花更多时间做架构设计,把写代码工作交给AI”,这幅图景更像是理想化的未来工作流预演,而非当下普遍现实。但这句话的真正价值在于,它标志着大厂对AI的定位,已经从“新奇工具”正式升级为“基础生产力设施”。与此同时,腾讯云Token消耗量日均突破5万亿的爆炸式增长,才是一个更坚实、更不掺水分的信号。它意味着在B端,大模型应用已经跨过概念验证阶段,进入了规模化吞吐数据和任务的实战期。这里的增长逻辑,与豆包在C端的挫折形成了微妙而关键的分野:企业客户为确定性的效率提升付费,意愿和能力都远强于个人用户为不确定的体验升级买单。

所以,当下的AI图景是撕裂的。一面是消费者市场在免费模式的泥潭中激烈缠斗,付费墙如同照妖镜,照出用户忠诚度的虚幻;另一面是企业服务市场在真实场景中高歌猛进,Token消耗量成为新的增长度量衡。而大洋彼岸,领跑者则用“风险”的叙事构筑护城河。这场游戏,早已不是单纯的技术冲刺。豆包的学费告诉我们,尊重市场教育的阶段比追求技术变现的速度更重要。Anthropic的呼吁则提醒我们,在竞争中,定义议题和制定规则的能力,有时比技术本身的领先同样关键。至于那些宏大而美妙的“AI生成代码”故事,不妨多听听云平台那实打实的Token跳动声——那里,才真正涌动着当前阶段AI商业化最真实、也最澎湃的暗流。

Disclaimer: The above content is generated by AI and is for reference only. 免责声明:以上内容由 AI 生成,仅供参考。

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