CITIC Securities: Securities Firm Investment Entering a New Era of Alpha Driven by Deep Research 中信建投：券商投资正进入一个以深度研究驱动的α新时代

The so-called "transition from β-beta trading to α-alpha mining," in plain language, means: in the past, everyone could comfortably earn money from broad market gains; now, they must get down on their knees and pick out gold grains from the sand one by one. It sounds beautiful, but several harsh realities are glossed over. First, α-alpha has always been scarce and is a zero-sum game. One firm's excess returns often come from another's misjudgments. The report excitedly discusses "deep differentiation" and "stock-specific sources," which is essentially promoting a more brutal and cutthroat arena rather than some universally beneficial industry upgrade. Second, the "diversified income system of comprehensive financial services" sounds sophisticated, but a closer look at the two closed loops of "broad wealth management" and "broad investment banking" reveals their core is still traditional licensing advantages and capital games. The so-called "second growth curve" seems more like a moat built by leading players using capital and channel advantages, casting doubt on whether small and medium-sized brokerages even qualify to compete.

The most intriguing phrase is "policy support shifting from short-term impulse to long-term institutional empowerment." This is a perfect piece of diplomatic language. Translating it: the emotional surges from slogans like "activating the capital market" in recent years are ending, and now we must rely on the slow work of deepening registration-based IPOs, expanding market makers, and broadening derivatives. The problem is, the sunshine and rain of institutional empowerment won’t be evenly distributed. It will water the already tall trees more vigorously, making them grow faster, while the underbrush may dry up even more. The "new α-era" depicted in the report is likely a winner-takes-all era with amplified Matthew effects. For most practitioners, this isn’t an opportunity but a clarion call for accelerated stratification.

Transposing this logic to any tech or innovation field feels familiar. It’s like the AI industry shifting from chasing universal large model parameters to mining tiny value increments in vertical scenarios. On the surface, it’s about "depth" and "refinement," but the underlying logic is an inevitable contraction amid growth anxiety. When the story of the incremental market is told, everyone starts crafting refined narratives about competing for the existing pie. The optimism in brokerage research can’t mask the awkwardness of its homogenized business—when wealth management becomes a product shelf and investment banking a conduit, the so-called "deep research-driven" approach often devolves into guessing policy winds and following hot sectors. True α-alpha, the kind based on profound business insights and unique risk pricing abilities, remains a rare species in this industry.

Therefore, when we hear grand narratives like the "new α-era," we might maintain a hint of vigilance. It may mark an industry’s shift from extensive, wild growth to a stage of refined, cutthroat competition for existing shares. For a few elites, it’s a feast; for most practitioners, it may signal the beginning of a long plateau. The report sketches a bright picture of transformation and upgrade, but don’t forget, on the back of every bright picture are etched silent costs and those eliminated without a word. In this eternally noisy jungle of finance, concepts always outrun reality, and true value often lies in maintaining cool skepticism amidst the clamor.

券商报告里那些关于α挖掘的兴奋描述，听着像极了科技行业追逐下一个风口时的集体亢动。当中信建投把“三十年五次重构”说得如此波澜壮阔时，我闻到的是一股熟悉的、试图用历史叙事掩盖当下困境的味道。他们想讲的是一个“进化”故事，但我看到的更像一场精心包装的“生存策略转移”——当β收益的大河逐渐干涸，所有人不得不挤进α这条更窄但看起来还能淘金的小溪。

所谓“从β博弈到α挖掘的跃迁”，翻译成大白话就是：以前大家躺着赚市场普涨的钱，现在得趴下去，一颗颗捡沙子里的金子。听起来很美，但有几个残酷的事实被轻描淡写了。第一，α从来都是稀缺品，而且是零和游戏。一家券商的超额收益，往往建立在另一家券商的误判之上。报告兴奋地谈论“深度分化”和“个股来源”，这本质上是在鼓吹一个更残酷、更内卷的角斗场，而不是什么普惠性的行业升级。第二，那个“多元化收入的综合金融服务体系”听起来高端，但细看“大财富”和“大投行”这两大闭环，其内核依旧是传统的牌照红利和资本金游戏。所谓“第二增长曲线”，更像是头部玩家用资本和渠道优势构筑的护城河，让中小券商连参赛资格都变得可疑。

最值得玩味的是那句“政策支持从短期脉冲转向长期制度性赋能”。这简直是一句完美的外交辞令。翻译一下：过去几年靠“活跃资本市场”这类口号带来的情绪脉冲快结束了，现在得指望注册制深化、做市商扩容、衍生品扩容这些慢功夫。但问题是，制度性赋能的阳光雨露，并不会均匀洒向每一片土壤。它会更猛烈地浇灌那些本就高大的树木，让它们长得更快，而林下的灌木可能更加干涸。报告描绘的“α新时代”，很可能是一个赢家通吃、马太效应加剧的新时代，对多数从业者而言，这不是机遇，而是加速分化的号角。

把这套逻辑平移到任何科技或创新领域，都似曾相识。就像AI行业从追逐通用大模型参数，转向挖掘垂直场景的微小价值增量。表面上是“深入”和“精耕”，底层逻辑却是增长焦虑下的必然收缩。当增量市场的故事讲完，所有人都开始讲存量博弈的精致叙事。券商研究的这份乐观，掩盖不了其业务同质化的尴尬——当财富管理沦为产品货架，投行沦为通道业务，所谓的“深度研究驱动”往往退化成对政策风向的揣摩和对热点赛道的跟随。真正的α，那种基于深刻商业洞见和独特风险定价能力的α，在这个行业里依然是珍稀物种。

因此，当我们听到“α新时代”这样的宏大叙事时，或许应该保持一丝警惕。它可能标志着一个行业从粗放的野蛮生长，进入了精细的存量厮杀阶段。对少数精英是盛宴，对大多数从业者，则可能是漫长平台期的开始。报告为我们勾勒了一幅转型升级的光明图景，但别忘了，每一幅光明图景的背面，都刻满了无声的代价和沉默的出局者。在金融这片永远喧嚣的丛林里，概念永远跑得比现实快，而真正的价值，往往藏在对喧嚣保持冷静的怀疑之中。