CPCA's Cui Dongshu: NEV Manufacturer Inventory Shrinks Slightly in June, No Industry Inventory Pressing Phenomenon 乘联分会崔东树：6月新能源车厂商库存小幅收缩，行业压库存现象没有出现

Summary

CPCA data shows that NEV manufacturer inventory contracted slightly in June 2026, with no signs of channel stuffing in the industry; exports have become a key support for stable sales volumes.
Affected by policy tightening, retail sales of passenger cars continued to decline year-on-year from January to June, while the ICE vehicle market experienced a collapse. However, commercial vehicles remained highly prosperous due to equipment renewal subsidies.
Several leading A-share companies released mid-year earnings forecasts for 2026, with significant profit growth in memory, upstream lithium-ion battery, and non-ferrous metals sectors. AI demand has driven a steady rise in memory chip prices.
The price of tungsten concentrate surged over 350% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths, boosted by dual demand from new energy and AI, have delivered substantial performance dividends to related enterprises.

Deep Analysis

TL;DR

• CPCA data indicates that NEV manufacturer inventory contracted slightly in June 2026, with no channel stuffing observed in the industry; exports served as a critical pillar for stabilizing sales.
• Influenced by policy contraction, retail sales of passenger cars saw continuous negative growth from January to June, with the ICE market experiencing a precipitous drop, whereas commercial vehicles maintained high prosperity due to equipment renewal subsidies.
• Multiple leading A-share companies issued 2026 interim earnings previews, showing significant profit increases in the memory, upstream lithium battery, and non-ferrous metals sectors, with AI demand driving a steady rise in memory chip prices.
• The price of tungsten concentrate increased by over 350% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Copper, aluminum, rare earths, and other non-ferrous metals, driven by dual demand from new energy and AI, allowed related enterprises to reap performance dividends.

Why It’s Worth Reading

This article reveals the structural divergence in China’s auto market after policy retreats in 2026 and the substantive pull exerted by the AI industry on upstream resources (memory, metals). It provides key data support for investors to capitalize on cyclical reversals and resource premiums.

Technical Analysis

• Auto Production and Sales Structure: Retail sales of passenger cars continued to decline negatively under the severe impact of reduced support policies for entry-level consumption. Conversely, commercial vehicles, propelled by equipment renewal subsidies, accelerated electrification in logistics and transport, exhibiting structural growth.
• Inventory and Exports: Although the trend for NEVs was weak in June, manufacturers maintained steady sales growth rates thanks to export volume increments. The slight contraction in manufacturer inventory suggests that supply and demand relations are trending toward health, with no risk of backlog.
• Semiconductor and Resource Prosperity: AI-driven construction of internet data centers has triggered a surge in demand for enterprise-grade storage products, leading to year-on-year price increases. Prices of upstream resources such as tungsten, lithium, and copper have climbed significantly, directly translating into multi-fold growth in net profits for listed companies.

Industry Insights

• Focus on Spillover Effects of AI Computing Infrastructure: AI benefits not only the model layer but also strongly drives demand for hardware raw materials like memory chips, copper, aluminum, and rare earths through data center construction. Resource stocks possess long-term allocation value.
• Beware of Risks from Weak Domestic Passenger Car Demand: As stimulus policies recede, traditional ICE vehicles and some NEVs face immense downward pressure. Automakers must rely more heavily on overseas markets or high-end transformation to offset declines in domestic retail sales.
• Commercial Vehicle Electrification is a Certainty Growth Point: Policy-driven equipment renewal for commercial vehicles and the acceleration of logistics electrification provide a stable growth engine for relevant industrial chains, distinct from the passenger car sector.

TL;DR

• 乘联会数据显示2026年6月新能源车厂商库存小幅收缩，行业未出现压库现象，出口成为销量平稳的关键支撑。
• 受政策收缩影响，1-6月乘用车零售持续负增长，燃油车市场出现崩塌式下滑，但商用车因设备更新补贴保持高景气。
• A股多家头部企业发布2026年中报预告，存储、锂电上游及有色金属板块业绩大增，AI需求推动存储芯片价格稳步上涨。
• 钨精矿价格上半年同比增幅超350%，铜、铝、稀土等有色金属受新能源与AI双重需求拉动，相关企业收获业绩红利。

为什么值得看

本文揭示了2026年中国汽车市场在政策退坡后的结构性分化，以及AI产业对上游资源（存储、金属）需求的实质性拉动，为投资者把握周期反转和资源溢价提供关键数据支撑。

技术解析

• 汽车产销结构：乘用车零售受入门级消费支持政策剧烈下降影响持续负增长；商用车受设备更新补贴推动，物流运输类电动化加速，呈现结构性增长。
• 库存与出口：6月新能源车走势不强，但凭借出口增量维持厂家销量增速平稳，厂商库存小幅收缩，表明供需关系趋于健康，无积压风险。
• 半导体与资源景气度：AI驱动互联网数据中心建设，带动企业级存储产品需求激增，价格同比上涨；钨、锂、铜等上游资源品价格大幅攀升，直接转化为上市公司净利润的高倍数增长。

行业启示

• 关注AI算力基础设施溢出效应：AI不仅利好模型层，更通过数据中心建设强力拉动存储芯片及铜、铝、稀土等硬件原材料的需求，资源股具备长期配置价值。
• 警惕乘用车内需疲软风险：随着刺激政策收缩，传统燃油车及部分新能源车面临巨大下行压力，车企需更加依赖海外市场或高端化转型来对冲国内零售下滑。
• 商用车电动化是确定性增长点：政策驱动的商用车设备更新和物流电动化加速，为相关产业链提供了区别于乘用车的稳定增长引擎。