Huatai Securities Hong Kong Stock Strategy: Hong Kong Stocks May Continue to Outperform 华泰证券港股策略：港股或继续跑出相对收益

The AI hardware chain has practically been put on a pedestal over the past two years—from GPUs to optical modules, from servers to storage chips. Anything tagged with “AI” saw its stock price shoot up like a rocket. And now? With the wind of tightening overseas liquidity blowing, the entire sector immediately shivers. Huatai’s remark that “there are no strong absolute returns in the short term” may sting, but it punctures the reality beneath the bubble. Take a look at those AI chip concept stocks—price-to-earnings ratios often exceed a hundred times, but what about actual orders? How many are propped up by storytelling alone? Nvidia’s earnings are certainly a benchmark, but downstream cloud giants have started hesitating on capital expenditure. Recent signals from Microsoft and Google suggest a shrewd mindset: AI investment is necessary, but the returns must be clear. Huatai’s suggestion to reassess after the July earnings season is well-timed, as concrete financial data will provide a definitive judgment. Chasing highs now? It’s truly like dancing on the edge of a knife.

However, the broker’s “balanced allocation” advice is equally exasperating. Recommending sectors with heavy short-selling pressure, such as optional retail and media, alongside high-dividend banks, and, looking further out, semiconductors, renewable energy, machinery, and even dining and consumer services—this list reads like a supermarket promotional flyer, stuffing in everything indiscriminately. The question arises: if the market truly followed this list, wouldn’t investing become a mere form-filling exercise? Huatai emphasizes “low valuations” and “stabilizing earnings expectations”—the logic isn’t wrong, but amid heightened volatility, this “risk-diversification” strategy is essentially an evasive maneuver of not daring to place a bet. The mention of “enhanced dividend attributes” in dining services almost makes me laugh: post-pandemic consumption recovery is real, but the dining industry faces enormous cost pressures, with profit margins thin as paper. Enhanced dividend attributes? It seems more like riding the “defensive” hotspot bandwagon.

More pointedly, brokerages always love to use “short-term” and “mid-term” to muddy the waters. Short-term risks, mid-term outlook—doesn’t that simply admit they can’t see clearly now? Is the AI hardware chain’s adjustment really just a liquidity issue? Probably not. Technology iteration is happening too fast: today’s red-hot AI accelerator cards could be replaced by cheaper custom chips tomorrow. Huatai notes that “semiconductor momentum is accelerating upward,” but global semiconductor inventories remain elevated, and under the shadow of Sino-American tech decoupling, the domestic substitution story, however loudly told, must confront the harsh reality of overcapacity. The “balanced” advice in this report may sound steady, but it betrays a sense of bewilderment about the main trend.

Regarding the AI hardware chain itself, my view is: the long-term tailwind hasn’t changed, but short-term reshuffling is inevitable. AI isn’t just hype; it’s reshaping every corner from healthcare to manufacturing. Hardware, as the foundational support, will only see increasing demand. However, after overheated market sentiment, a return to rationality is inevitable—pseudo-AI companies propped up by concepts will see their bubbles burst sooner or later. Huatai’s advice to “adjust allocation exposure” is correct, but as an investor, you must form your own judgment: will you follow the broker’s baton, or dig deeper for companies with genuine technological moats? For example, firms specializing in computational power optimization or players making breakthroughs in edge computing—these might be the golden opportunities to buy after the adjustment.

Finally, I can’t help but吐槽: broker research reports are always advising to “wait for opportunities,” yet opportunities never wait for you. Liquidity risks certainly warrant caution, but markets always birth opportunities amid fear. This Huatai report, rather than an investment guide, is more of an emotional buffer—it uses a list of sector names to mask the core question: in the AI revolution, do you ultimately believe in the long-term power of technology? If you do, don’t be scared off by short-term volatility. If you don’t, then no matter how you allocate across sectors, you’re merely drifting with the current. Investors must learn to hear their own heartbeat amid the noise.

华泰证券这份研报，读起来就像一位老司机在暴风雨来临前踩了一脚刹车，然后淡定地告诉你：AI硬件链这班车，短期别急着上，等雨停了再捡便宜。券商的研报嘛，向来是这样——市场已经跌得鼻青脸肿了，它才慢悠悠地发个报告说“建议关注调整后的机会”，这不就是典型的“事后诸葛亮”吗？但话说回来，这份建议里藏着的冷思考，倒值得拎出来咂摸咂摸。

AI硬件链，过去两年简直被捧上了天，从GPU到光模块，从服务器到存储芯片，只要沾上“AI”俩字，股价就像坐了火箭。现在呢？海外流动性收紧的风一吹，整个板块立马哆嗦，华泰说“短期不具备强绝对收益”，这话听着扎心，但戳破的是泡沫下的现实。你看看那些AI芯片概念股，市盈率动辄上百倍，可实际订单呢？有多少是靠讲故事撑起来的？英伟达的财报固然是标杆，但下游的云计算巨头们资本开支已经开始犹豫了，微软、谷歌最近的表态都透着精明——AI要投入，但得算清楚回报。华泰建议等7月财报季再看，这时间点卡得精准，因为届时真金白银的数据会一锤定音，现在追高？确实像在刀尖上跳舞。

但券商的“均衡配置”建议，又让人哭笑不得。推荐可选零售、传媒这些“沽空压力重”的板块，还有银行的高股息，以及中期看半导体、电新、机械，甚至餐饮和消费者服务——这清单长得像超市促销单，啥都往里塞。问题来了：如果市场真按这份清单走，那投资岂不是成了填表格游戏？华泰强调“估值低位”和“盈利预期企稳”，这逻辑没错，但在波动加剧的当下，这种“分散风险”的策略，本质上也是一种不敢押注的逃避。尤其提到“红利属性增强”的餐饮服务，我简直想笑：疫情后消费复苏是不错，但餐饮行业成本压力山大，利润率薄如纸，红利属性增强？怕是想蹭“防御性”的热点罢了。

更尖锐点说，券商研报总爱用“短期”和“中期”来糊弄人。短期看风险，中期看景气——这不就是承认自己看不清现在吗？AI硬件链的调整，真的只是流动性问题？恐怕未必。技术迭代的速度太快了，今天炙手可热的AI加速卡，明天就可能被更便宜的定制芯片替代。华泰提到“半导体景气加速上行”，但全球半导体库存还在高位徘徊，中美科技脱钩的阴影下，国产替代的故事讲得再响，也得面对产能过剩的残酷现实。这份研报的“均衡”建议，听起来四平八稳，实则透露出对主线行情的迷茫。

说到AI硬件链本身，我的观点是：长期风口未变，但短期洗牌在所难免。AI不是虚火，它正在重塑从医疗到制造的每个角落，硬件作为底层支撑，需求只会增不会减。然而，市场情绪过热后必然回归理性，那些靠概念炒起来的伪AI公司，泡沫破裂是迟早的事。华泰建议“调整配置敞口”，这没错，但作为投资者，你得有自己的判断：是跟着券商指挥棒转，还是深入挖掘真正有技术护城河的企业？比如，专注算力优化的公司，或者在边缘计算上有突破的玩家，这些可能才是调整后的黄金坑。

最后，忍不住吐槽：券商的研报永远在建议“等待机会”，可机会从来不等你。流动性风险当然要警惕，但市场总是在恐惧中诞生机遇。华泰这份报告，与其说是投资指南，不如说是情绪缓冲剂——它用一堆板块名称，掩盖了核心问题：在AI这场革命里，你到底信不信技术的长期力量？如果信，就别被短期波动吓破胆；如果不信，那无论配置啥板块，都只是随波逐流。投资者啊，得学会在噪音中听清自己的心跳。