Galaxy Securities A-share Strategy: Anchor on Performance, Grasp Structural Opportunities Amid Volatility 银河证券A股策略：建议以业绩为锚，在波动中把握结构性机会

Summary

Guoyuan Securities points out that A-shares are in a phase of stock-game competition and style rebalancing, recommending anchoring investments on earnings performance and focusing on fundamental verification opportunities before the deadline for semi-annual report previews.
The CEO of SK Hynix predicts that supply in the memory industry will be extremely tight by 2027, with demand consistently exceeding capacity, reinforcing the bullish logic for memory chips and the semiconductor industry chain.
The expansion progress of China’s “Two Memories” (ChangXin Memory Technologies and YMTC) is viewed as a key variable affecting the global memory market landscape, drawing high attention from major overseas manufacturers.
Market hotspots exhibit characteristics dominated by event-driven factors and rapid rotation; after valuation digestion, sector leaders and companies with genuine order expectations offer greater allocation value.

Deep Analysis

TL;DR

• Guoyuan Securities points out that A-shares are in a phase of stock-game competition and style rebalancing, recommending anchoring investments on earnings performance and focusing on fundamental verification opportunities before the deadline for semi-annual report previews.
• The CEO of SK Hynix predicts that supply in the memory industry will be extremely tight by 2027, with demand consistently exceeding capacity, reinforcing the bullish logic for memory chips and the semiconductor industry chain.
• The expansion progress of China’s “Two Memories” (ChangXin Memory Technologies and YMTC) is viewed as a key variable affecting the global memory market landscape, drawing high attention from major overseas manufacturers.
• Market hotspots exhibit characteristics dominated by event-driven factors and rapid rotation; after valuation digestion, sector leaders and companies with genuine order expectations offer greater allocation value.

Why It Is Worth Reading

This article combines macro A-share strategies with micro semiconductor industry dynamics, providing investors with dual references ranging from market sentiment to specific industry chain logic. For practitioners focused on technology growth stocks, the quantitative expectations for the memory chip supply-demand gap and the analysis of long-term variables in domestic substitution help precisely identify core targets within structural market trends.

Technical Analysis

• Market Strategy Framework: Guoyuan Securities proposes an investment strategy “anchored on earnings,” emphasizing the screening of sub-sector leaders with genuine orders and profit expectations through the mandatory disclosure node of semi-annual report previews on July 15, while avoiding pure concept speculation in a wide-range oscillating market.
• Memory Industry Supply-Demand Model: Citing the views of SK Hynix’s CEO, it constructs a supply-demand imbalance model of “demand growth vs. constrained capacity.” It predicts 2027 as the year of tightest supply, with the gap potentially lasting beyond 2030, supporting the logic of rising memory chip prices and high industry prosperity.
• Competitive Landscape Variables: It introduces Chinese memory manufacturers (ChangXin Memory Technologies and YMTC) as key variables altering the global supply curve. Overseas giants not only focus on their own expansion but also closely monitor the technological breakthroughs and capacity release progress of Chinese firms, constituting the core uncertainty in long-term competition.
• Industry Chain Transmission Path: The prosperity logic of memory chips extends upstream, boosting attention to related sub-sectors such as advanced packaging and semiconductor materials, creating a sector linkage effect from core components to supporting materials.

Industry Insights

• Shift in Investment Focus to Fundamental Verification: In the context of accelerating market rotation, purely event-driven strategies become ineffective. Investors should closely track key time nodes during the earnings season, prioritize allocating to sub-sector leaders with high earnings certainty, and reduce portfolio volatility risks.
• Long-term Allocation Value in the Memory Sector: The global memory supply-demand tight balance is expected to persist for several years. Coupled with the acceleration of domestic substitution, there are long-term structural investment opportunities in memory chips and their upstream materials and equipment sectors. Attention should be paid to marginal changes brought by capacity expansion and technological iteration.
• Normalization of Geopolitical and Technological Competition: The rise of China’s memory industry has become an indispensable force in the global supply chain. Industry participants need to closely monitor the reshaping impact of domestic and international policies, technological blockades, and countermeasures on the industry chain structure, and prepare strategically for supply chain diversification.

TL;DR

• 银河证券指出A股处于存量博弈与风格再平衡阶段，建议以业绩为锚，重点关注半年报预告截止日前的基本面验证机会。
• SK海力士CEO预测2027年存储行业供应将极度紧张，需求持续超过产能，强化了存储芯片及半导体产业链的景气逻辑。
• 国内“两存”（长鑫存储和长江存储）的扩产进展被视为影响全球存储市场格局的关键变量，引发海外大厂高度关注。
• 市场热点呈现事件驱动主导和快速轮动特征，估值消化后的细分龙头及具备真实订单预期的企业更具配置价值。

为什么值得看

本文结合了宏观A股策略与微观半导体产业动态，为投资者提供了从市场情绪到具体产业链逻辑的双重参考。对于关注科技成长股的从业者而言，存储芯片供需缺口的量化预期及国产替代的长期变量分析，有助于精准把握结构性行情中的核心标的。

技术解析

• 市场策略框架：银河证券提出“以业绩为锚”的投资策略，强调在宽幅震荡市中，通过7月15日半年报预告强制披露节点，筛选具有真实订单和盈利预期的细分行业龙头，规避纯概念炒作。
• 存储产业供需模型：引用SK海力士CEO观点，构建“需求增长 vs 产能受限”的供需失衡模型。预测2027年为供应最紧张年份，且供需缺口可能延续至2030年后，支撑存储芯片涨价及行业高景气度的逻辑。
• 竞争格局变量：引入中国存储厂商（长鑫存储、长江存储）作为改变全球供给曲线的关键变量。海外大厂不仅关注自身扩产，更密切关注中国厂商的技术突破与产能释放进度，这构成了长期博弈的核心不确定性。
• 产业链传导路径：存储芯片景气逻辑向上游延伸，带动先进封装、半导体材料等相关细分领域的关注度提升，形成从核心器件到配套材料的板块联动效应。

行业启示

• 投资重心转向基本面验证：在市场轮动加速的背景下，单纯的事件驱动策略失效，投资者应紧密跟踪财报季的关键时间节点，优先配置业绩确定性高的细分龙头，降低持仓波动风险。
• 存储赛道具备长期配置价值：全球存储供需紧平衡状态预计将持续数年，叠加国产替代进程加速，存储芯片及其上游材料、设备环节存在长期的结构性投资机会，需关注产能扩张与技术迭代带来的边际变化。
• 地缘与技术博弈常态化：中国存储产业的崛起已成为全球供应链不可忽视的力量，行业参与者需密切关注国内外政策、技术封锁与反制措施对产业链格局的重塑影响，做好供应链多元化的战略准备。